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The UK Government has produced a map of the impacts of a global 4°C rise in temperatures. The map was launched by Foreign Secretary David Miliband and Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Miliband at the Science Museum in London today. The Met Office Hadley Centre produced the map drawing together contributions from 27 leading scientists. The map represents the latest peer-reviewed science on the impacts of Climate Change.

The poster highlights some of the impacts that may occur if the global average temperature rises by 4 °C above the pre-industrial climate average. If emissions continue at the current rate the global rise in temperature could occur as early as 2060 or 2070.

The map shows that the average rise will not be spread uniformly across the globe. The average land temperature will be 5.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and in northern latitudes, particularly the Arctic, the increases will be much greater.

The map illustrates a selection of the impacts on human activity that may occur, and highlights the severe effects on water availability, agricultural productivity, extreme temperatures and drought, the risk of forest fire and sea level rise.

Agricultural yields are expected to decrease for all major cereal crops in all major regions of production. Half of all Himalayan glaciers will be significantly reduced by 2050, leading to 23% of the population of China being deprived of the vital dry season glacial melt water source.

The map makes clear why Climate Change is a matter of immediate importance, and how it affects the future security and prosperity of all countries. Climate change will increasingly affect not just the physical landscape but the political context and choices each country has to work with. It could threaten our access to essential resources, our infrastructure, and our social and economic stability.

Dealing with climate change is an international political challenge, requiring all countries to work together. There are now just under 50 days left to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting in Copenhagen, where 192 countries will try to reach agreement on an international climate agreement for the period after 2012 when the Kyoto treaty ends.

The map demonstrates why we need a global agreement at Copenhagen that will keep warming to a maximum of 2°C. At 2°C the risk of the very severest impacts on our planet is significantly reduced. It we fail to achieve this then a four degrees increase during the course of this century is the most likely outcome, on the basis of global emissions continuing to increase at the current rate.

EDITORS' NOTE

Further information on the science of the map can be found at www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/guide/effects/

The online version of the 4 degree world map provides an interactive web tool which allows the user to focus on certain impacts, geographies and access more information about the science behind the map. The map is available to be embedded on any website and the embed code can be accessed at www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/4degrees from 22nd October.

The poster focuses on human impacts. Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity have been deliberately excluded. The only exception is the information about Amazon die-back, which is there because it also represents a significant economic loss to the region.

Climate feedback processes are also excluded from the poster. So although the melting of the permafrost is mentioned, and Amazon die back, no mention is made about the contribution this will have on accelerating future climate change.

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